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Juozas Kaziukenas, founder and CEO of Marketplace Pulse, agreed with Sebastian that subsequent quarters should take care of the over-capacity issue. He added that with ecommerce demand being pulled forward and then back again by the pandemic cycle, “it’s back on the trendline it was before COVID, and so is Amazon.”

“So, Amazon failing to grow in Q1 only looks bad when ignoring the two-year context,” he said. “Quarters to come are much more important as they will be compared against 2021 which was no longer boosted by COVID. If Amazon is still showing weak growth in Q3 and beyond this year, then that’s a concern.”

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Meanwhile, the total value of goods sold on Amazon’s site in 2021 grew at half the rate it did in 2020, according to an analysis by research firm Marketplace Pulse.

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At Amazon, the total value of goods sold grew in 2021 at half the rate it did in 2020, according to an analysis by research firm Marketplace Pulse.

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Investors poured more than $14 billion in equity and debt combined into the space over the past two years, according to an analytics

firm Marketplace Pulse. As many as 100 rollup startups were founded over that period.

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Juozas Kaziukėnas, the founder of the e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse, posed a question to me a couple of months ago that I haven’t been able to forget: Did the coronavirus really compel us to shop online more — or just shop more, period?

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Listing new sellers on its marketplace is especially important to the company as it competes for sellers and buyers with Amazon. Marketplace Pulse puts Walmart sellers at 136,000 compared to the over six million on Amazon.

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But those efforts have so far only succeeded in capturing a tiny sliver of the overall e-commerce market, said Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder and CEO of the e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse. “We’ve been talking about live commerce and social commerce for years and have little progress to show for it.” he said.

“If anyone can figure out live commerce, it won’t be Amazon, Walmart or any other incumbent, but instead platforms like TikTok that already have the attention of users,” Kaziukėnas said. “It is more likely that TikTok will learn how to add shopping than Amazon will learn how to become social.”

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Amazon has more than 400 different private brands, according to estimates.

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Research firm Marketplace Pulse estimates Walmart added about 8,000 sellers from China from March 2021 to mid-January 2022, accounting for almost all of its new international sellers and 14% of total new merchants. “WFS makes the seller’s business location practically invisible to shoppers since Walmart ships orders from domestic warehouses on the seller’s behalf,” wrote Juozas Kaziukenas, chief executive officer of the researcher, in a December report. “FBA played a crucial role in unlocking Amazon for international sellers, and the same [is] playing out on Walmart.”

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“Getting N95 masks for kids seems to be surging in waves -- first in August 2021, and now in January,” said Juozas Kaziukenas, founder of Marketplace Pulse, which monitors consumer demand on Amazon and other online stores.

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Marketplace Pulse said Amazon sellers were getting bought out at valuations of between four and eight times underlying earnings, against two to three times a couple of years ago.

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If debt funding is included, the figure is as high as $13 billion across a pool of 89 global active Amazon aggregators, according to industry tracker Marketplace Pulse.

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The timing makes sense, too, as the pandemic has given online sales a shot in the arm. Walmart, which started its marketplace in 2009, saw gross merchandise volume—total sales through its platform—double in 2020, according to estimates from Marketplace Pulse. Pre-pandemic, growth was a more muted 35%.

The newer crop of marketplaces seem to be trying to avoid both risks by being more selective with sellers. A lousy integration with in-store experiences can also hurt, notes Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder of Marketplace Pulse. Shoppers could get frustrated if they can’t pick up and return marketplace items at the store, for example.

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“In some ways Amazon doesn’t really want to be a retailer,” said Juozas Kaziukenas of Marketplace Pulse, an e-commerce consultant. “It doesn’t want to do curation or offer human interaction,” two of the essential qualities of retail for centuries.

“Amazon knows what I buy, how often I buy, what I search for,” Mr. Kaziukenas said. “But decades after it launched, it can’t answer a simple question — what would Juozas like to buy? Instead it shows me thousands of deals, with some basic filters like category and price, and hopes I will find what I like. Amazon is so much work.”

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"Die meisten dieser Verkäufer halten ihre Produkte wahrscheinlich niemals in der Hand", sagt der Amazon-Experte Juozas Kaziukėnas von "Marketplace Pulse", einer Research-Firma in den USA. Er beschreibt den FBA-Handel als "eine Art Computerspiel" - allerdings mit physischen Produkten.

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Amazon-Experte Juozas Kaziukenas, Gründer von Marketplace Pulse, einer Analysefirma in den USA, geht sogar so weit, dass er die Jagd nach der nächsten großen Marke als "eine Art Computerspiel" beschreibt. Verheerend werde das dann, wenn potenziell "unsichere", "gefährliche" oder "gefälschte" Produkte verkauft würden. "Da kann alles Mögliche schiefgehen", sagt Kaziukenas.

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The shift in spending from stores to websites -- accelerated during the pandemic last year -- has made the holiday shopping season boring, said Juozas Kaziukenas, founder and CEO of Marketplace Pulse, which monitors online sales.

“Physical Black Friday had this aura of craziness because people fought in stores and camped outside,” he said. “Now that so much has shifted online, it’s lost its excitement.”

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There’s also plenty of competition. Product categories like ear buds with several third-party sellers fighting one another for sales are less prone to inflationary pressure, said Juozas Kaziukenas, CEO of the e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse.

“The marketplace protects against rising prices because it dynamically shifts sales to the most competitive offers,” Kaziukenas said. “On Amazon, it matters less if products X and Z are getting more expensive. Because on Amazon there are also Y, T, U, etcetera products that didn’t get more expensive. Consumers will pick those.”

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The scale of the fundraising in Europe is only a fraction of the $12 billion that investors have poured into Amazon roll-up strategies since the start of the pandemic, according to data from Marketplace Pulse.

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Amazon’s new pricing policy “seems more aggressive than what I had thought Amazon would do,” said Juozas Kaziukėnas, the founder and CEO of e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse, which provides data and analytics to Amazon sellers.

“It’s no longer up to the sellers to decide how they want to be selling these items,” Kaziukėnas said.

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