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"Despite promises that tariffs will help American businesses, historical evidence shows they simply make products more expensive for American consumers while failing to shift market share to domestic sellers," said Ben Donovan, analyst at e-commerce consultancy Marketplace Pulse.

Chinese sellers overtook Americans on Amazon in 2024, accounting for more than half of top 10,000 sellers by revenue, according to Marketplace Pulse.

On Walmart Marketplace, Chinese sellers now account for around 28% of active merchants, up from less than 1% at the start of 2021, Marketplace Pulse said.

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Research published by Marketplace Pulse in January shows Chinese sellers make up half of Amazon’s top US marketplace vendors and may serve as a major driver of the company’s advertising revenue.

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The new order will also impact many third-party sellers on Amazon’s marketplace. Marketplace Pulse research reports that China-based sellers represent nearly 50% of the top 10,000 sellers on Amazon in the U.S., a group that contributes almost half of the third-party gross merchandise value on Amazon.

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China-based sellers have more than a 50% market share on Amazon’s third-party seller marketplace, according to MarketPlace Pulse.

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Third-party sellers — who make up 60% of Amazon’s sales — are under even more pressure.

Marketplace Pulse estimates that Chinese sellers account for half of Amazon’s U.S. third-party sales, meaning tariffs could either eat into margins or push up consumer prices.

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Wall Street has been debating in recent weeks just how much Amazon could be hit by increased tariffs. China-based sellers have more than 50% market share on Amazon's third-party seller marketplace, according to research from MarketPlace Pulse.

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Chinese sellers now represent 28% of all active third-party sellers on Walmart, according to Marketplace Pulse. "They are trying to replicate as many of the routes to growth as Amazon has modeled," Ben Donovan, insights lead for Marketplace Pulse, told Modern Retail. "That was a big part of [Amazon's] strategy to open up the selection, to really court Chinese sellers and invite them to be a main part of the platform.”

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Some 41% of new sellers on Walmart Marketplace were from China in 2024, up from 16% in 2023, according to e-commerce research company Marketplace Pulse.

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The concerns being aired by Detlefsen and his group of fellow Amazon business owners are not new, but have mounted in recent years as the market share of China-based sellers on Amazon’s U.S. shopping site has crossed 50%, according to estimates by the e-commerce data firm Marketplace Pulse.

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The number of Chinese businesses selling through Amazon Marketplace has steadily risen, many based in the electronics hub Shenzhen. In the UK they made up 39% of the top 10,000 sellers in December, up from 20% eight years ago, according to Marketplace Pulse, an e-commerce research firm.

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China-based merchants have made up a sizable contingent of Amazon’s marketplace for many years, though the company acknowledged for the first time in 2023 that they account for a “significant portion.” By some estimates, they outnumber American sellers on the platform, according to data from Marketplace Pulse.

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Last year, Chinese third-party sellers became an outright majority of all sellers on Amazon, and they dominate the top sellers list, according to Marketplace Pulse data. Walmart’s third-party marketplace is now made up of 30% Chinese seller accounts, up from 20% a year ago.

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The company, founded in 2018, spearheaded a wave of “Amazon aggregators” that grew at a blistering pace to attract over $16bn in capital mostly in 2021, according to Marketplace Pulse.

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China’s Xiaomi, the world’s third-largest smartphone maker, and electric vehicle powerhouse BYD have focused on the rest of the world outside the United States. The United States is probably the largest market for Temu but “just barely,” said Juozas Kaziukenas, founder of the e-commerce research firm Marketplace Pulse.

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As such, RedNote is probably just a cultural blip, at least where brands are concerned, according to Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder of Marketplace Pulse.

“RedNote is a blink of a moment, like a small, knee-jerk reaction thing,” he said. “It’s not going to be the place for TikTok users to go and somehow continue doing their thing.”

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“We’ve seen tractors for sale. We’ve seen furniture for sale. We’ve seen e-bikes for sale,” said Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder of Marketplace Pulse.

“Early on, Temu focused on being able to shock consumers with these super cheap items over time. It’s trying to do less of that,” he said. “If anything, Temu is trying to not only sell more expensive items but also sell more items at the same time to increase the average order value and thus achieve better unit economics.”

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The loss of TikTok Shop as a marketplace in the U.S. will also have a detrimental impact on the growth of live shopping in the country. Although social media channels like YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels “have replicated the core TikTok experience” and therefore will see users and creators migrate to those platforms, they are not social commerce platforms, according to Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder and CEO of Marketplace Pulse. As such, a TikTok ban will significantly erode the growth of live shopping in the U.S.

As Kaziukėnas put it, “While brands that sell through TikTok Shop will shift their ad budgets and focus to other channels, those will not be social commerce.”

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Temu, which is owned by PDD, one of the biggest ecommerce giants in China, is moving and pivoting at a speed that its Western counterparts can’t really grasp, says Juozas Kaziukėnas, founder of the ecommerce intelligence firm Marketplace Pulse. “When you look at a company like Temu, it's going a thousand miles an hour,” he says.

Kaziukėnas believes the most important thing Temu did this year was quickly switch its focus away from shipping small packages through air cargo and start building local inventory supply chains in the US and other countries. “This year, it started with 100 percent of goods coming from China; now in the US, 50 percent of them are coming from local warehouses. For Western marketplaces, these types of changes would have taken years,” Kaziukėnas says.

Whether Temu can overcome these hurdles will depend on how fast the company can adjust its supply chain and pivot away from the most troublesome aspects of how it operates—before regulators take action. “What Temu was, is, and what Temu will be in the future are perhaps different things,” Kaziukėnas says.

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Juozas Kaziukenas, founder of Marketplace Pulse, said that indicates a certain agility some critics didn’t think the company had.

“The biggest change [to low-cost e-commerce] this year was the aggressive move to storing inventory locally, or to selling inventory that is already stored locally, as opposed to shipping goods from China. That, I think, is most applicable to Temu,” Kaziukenas said. “Knowing that de minimis changes are coming…this is only going to get accelerated next year.”

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None of this has stopped sales numbers from breaking records.

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