US E-Commerce Without Amazon

E-commerce in the US is growing merely 5.6% if not for the 29% growth of Amazon which raises the overall growth to 16%.

Amazon retail e-commerce sales

Sales on Amazon in the US are estimated to reach $258.22 billion in 2018, up 29% over 2017, as estimated by eMarketer. This figure is the gross merchandise volume (GMV) and includes direct sales by Amazon itself (also known as first-party or 1P) and the third-party marketplace.

Marketplace sales will make up 68% of the Amazon’s total sales in 2018, and that figure will surpass 70% by 2019. The marketplace will grow 35.6% in 2018, twice the rate of Amazon direct sales’ 17.5% growth. The marketplace is estimated to grow from $175 billion in sales this year to $225 billion in 2019.

Amazon will drive 80% of US e-commerce growth this year. Sales on Amazon are forecasted to grow by $60 billion, while the rest of e-commerce will add $15 billion to its size. As a result e-commerce is growing 16%, but most of that growth happens on Amazon.

Thus by 2019 Amazon will be responsible for more than half of US e-commerce sales.

Network effects of Prime is likely the largest contributor to this. The company has revealed that the Prime membership has grown to one hundred million members worldwide; at least sixty million of those are based in the US - nearly half of households in the country. Research has shown that Prime members are unlikely to price-compare on other shopping websites.

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Juozas "Joe" Kaziuk─Śnas

Founder of Marketplace Pulse, Joe wears multiple hats in the management of Marketplace Pulse, including writing most of the articles. Based in New York City. Advisor to other startups and entrepreneurs. Occasional speaker at conferences.

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